The arrival of the offseason means that it's time to rank stuff. Already this winter, we've sized up the 60 best free agents, both on an overall and positional basis. There's no law that prevents us from ranking minor-league players in addition to their big-league counterparts. As such, we're going to spend the winter evaluating every team's farm system.
The lack of a minor-league season makes that more of a challenge this year. It doesn't help that some teams opted against sharing video and data from their alternate-site camps with the rest of the league. As such, we've opted against overthinking this. Our rankings will essentially be the same as they were last winter with a few changes. First, we'll exclude anyone who graduated by exhausting their rookie eligibility; second, we'll replace them with draftees or other worthy prospects; and third, and lastly, we'll present the information in a new format.
In every article in this series, you'll find a team's top five prospects as well as five others we felt like including, either because of their promise or some other reason. For those top five prospects, you'll find a quick summation of their pros (their saving grace, if one will) and their cons (their fault line), as well as beefier report and our attempt to peg their "likeliest outcome."
These rankings were compiled by talking to industry folks -- scouts, analysts, and other evaluators -- and include a touch of our own evaluative biases. Remember, that this is more of an art than a science, and that the write-ups matter more than the rankings themselves.
Now, let's get on to the top five prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays system.
1. Wander Franco, SS
Age (as of 4/1/2021): 20
Height/Weight: 5-foot-10, 189 pounds
Acquired: International amateur free-agent signing (Dominican Republic)
Highest level: High-A
Saving grace: Everything
Fault line: None
Scouting report: Franco is a switch-hitter who makes a ton of contact, much of it hard; he garners above-average marks for his speed and his arm; and … look, there's just not much he can't do. One rival front-office member said that Franco could've probably held his own in the majors back in 2019, when he was an 18-year-old. He has a chance to be a special, special player -- it's just a matter of when the Rays elect to bring him up. Our guess would be after the Super Two deadline.
Likeliest outcome: Star-level shortstop
2. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Age (as of 4/1/2021): 25
Height/Weight: 6-foot-2, 220 pounds
Acquired: No. 4 pick in the 2017 draft (Louisville)
Highest level: MLB
Saving grace: Arm
Fault line: Bat
Scouting report: McKay was supposed to be a safe mid-rotation starter with good command, poise, and stuff. (Scouts weren't as high on his bat.) Alas, he had a miserable 2020. First he missed time because of COVID-19, and then because of shoulder surgery. It's unclear how McKay will bounce back -- obviously the hope is that he looks as though he never missed a day -- but it just goes to show that there might not be such a thing as a safe pitching prospect.
Likeliest outcome: Mid-rotation starter
3. Shane Baz, RHP
Age (as of 4/1/2021): 21
Height/Weight: 6-foot-2, 190 pounds
Acquired: Part of the Chris Archer trade (Pirates)
Highest level: Single-A
Saving grace: Broad arsenal
Fault line: Command
Scouting report: Baz has three potential plus pitches, his fastball, curve, and cutter, and has the body to start. His delivery leaves him with so-so command, and he's had issues with left-handed batters because of his lagging changeup. The upside is considerable, but there's a real chance he ends up in the bullpen if he can't shore up those weaknesses over the coming years.
Likeliest outcome: Mid-rotation starter or late-game reliever
4. Vidal Brujan, 2B
Age (as of 4/1/2021): 23
Height/Weight: 5-foot-10, 180 pounds
Acquired: International amateur free-agent signing (Dominican Republican)
Highest level: Double-A
Saving grace: Hit tool, speed
Fault line: Power
Scouting report: Brujan is a speedy switch-hitter who could feature three plus tools at maturation, including his glove once he (presumably) moves to second base or center field. The carrying tool here, if you had to pick one, is his hit tool. He's consistently been an above-average hitter throughout his professional career, no matter his age or the sample size, and his bat-to-ball skills should allow him to post a good average without striking out frequently. There's a chance he grows into power, too, giving him a dynamic, well-rounded offensive game.
Likeliest outcome: Starter somewhere, maybe not second base
5. Randy Arozarena, OF
Age (as of 4/1/2021): 26
Height/Weight: 5-foot-11, 185 pounds
Acquired: Part of the Matthew Liberatore trade (Cardinals)
Highest level: MLB
Saving grace: Bat
Fault line: Big-league introduction
Scouting report: We included Arozarena in last year's Cardinals list as a "riser" thanks to his minor-league performance and seeming chance to become at least a reserve outfielder. Arozarena had an outstanding big-league debut, including an historic playoff run. We're not ready to anoint him as Tampa Bay's version of Mookie Betts just yet -- it was an odd year and we're assuming the league will adjust to him, throwing him fewer fastballs in particular. Arozarena's ability to adjust back will dictate if he's a starter or something more. Note: This ranking was made prior to Arozarena getting arrested in Mexico following a domestic incident.
Likeliest outcome: Starting outfielder
Five others to know
- Nick Bitsko, RHP
The Rays landed Bitsko with the 24th pick in June's draft. He wasn't the mystery man he was advertised as -- he would've likely been a first-round pick in 2021 before he reclassified -- but he does have all the ingredients to become a quality starting pitcher after years of refinement. Bitsko had shoulder surgery last week.
- Alika Williams, SS
Williams, Tampa Bay's supplemental first-round pick, is a good-fielding shortstop whose bat could play light. He hit .300/.383/.400 with just five home runs and 15 steals (on 25 tries) during his time at Arizona State, suggesting he's not going to be a dynamic hitter.
- Ronald Hernandez, C
Hernandez slid out of the top five through little fault of his own. He has strength and a feel for the barrel, but approach has so far resulted in some ugly strikeout-to-walk ratios. He does have a cannon for an arm.
- Josh Lowe, OF
Lowe has star-level upside thanks to his power, speed, and center-field defense. He's the odds-on favorite to be Tampa Bay's starting center fielder come 2022.
- Taylor Walls, SS
Walls hits for average, walks, runs fine, and plays fine shortstop defense. He's unlikely to break into Tampa Bay's infield situation, but ought to get a crack at starting elsewhere, the way Nick Solak and Jake Cronenworth have in recent years.
